The White House said Monday that Iran was gearing up to supply Russia with hundreds of drones, some of them armed, in July. It was uncertain whether deliveries had already started, but the U.S. believes training is set to take place as early as this month. Just what are these drones and what impact might they have on the conflict?
The announcement came from out of left field, surprising even expert analysts like Sam Bendett who have maintained a close watch on Russian uncrewed systems – “Did not see this coming,” Bendett tweeted.
Iran has a robust and varied drone ecosystem and has been a major user and supplier of drones for decades. This has largely been driven by sanctions: unable to import military aircraft or drones, and unable to build large combat jets, Iran has become a specialist in combat drones for a variety of purposes. Back in 2014, the WarIsBoring blog noted that ‘Like it or not, Iran is a drone power.’
Iran’s Shahed 129 drone is a proven aircraft carrying four precision-guided smart bombs and may be … [+]
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Iran typically exports its drones to proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen, who use them to attack targets in Israel and in Saudi Arabia, respectively. But it also supplies them on a more commercial basis to customers in Venezuela and Ecuador as well as friendly states in Africa.
This thriving industry produces dozens of different types of drones, from large aircraft with a range of thousands of miles to hand-launched tactical models and loitering munitions carrying explosive warheads. This extensive catalog from Oryx includes over 200 entries, although many are prototypes that have not entered production or are known from a description only. To understand exactly what the Russians are getting, we need to look closely at the exact wording from the White House.
“Our information indicates that the Iranian government is preparing to provide Russia with up to several hundred UAVs [Uncrewed Aerial Vehicles], including weapons-capable UAVs on an expedited timeline,” U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters Monday.
Many commentators assumed from the numbers involved that these must be small surveillance drones or loitering munitions. However, there are a couple of problems with this theory.
One is that Russia already has plenty of small drones. The Orlan-10 (“Eagle”) is the workhorse of the Russian drone fleet. With a wingspan of 10 meters and a flight time of up to 16 hours with a piston engine that sounds like a motor scooter, it efficiently locates targets for Russian artillery and rockets and directs fire on to them – drone-directed fire typically strikes within three minutes, compared to the half hour taken by other methods. While Russia has lost at least 70 Orlans so far, there may be as many as 2,000 in service and getting more is unlikely to be an urgent need.
The term ‘weapons-capable UAV’ is also an indication. The White House knows the term ‘loitering munition’ for drones fitted with warheads for kamikaze-style attacks, like the U.S. Switchblades supplied to Ukraine, and did not use it in the statement. ‘Weapons-capable UAV’ is used for larger drones which can carry bombs, missiles or rockets. In addition, while Russia may be getting more cautious about expending its stocks of Kalibr ballistic missiles, it continues to use them on civilian targets …….