Drones might tip the balance in a potential conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but not in the way that many analysts seem to think. Anyone expecting David vs. Goliath might be disappointed.
In the 2020 conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the Azeri’s Turkish-supplied TB2 Bayraktar drones ripped through Armenia tanks and other vehicles with laser-guided missiles. The Armenian air defenses, supplied by Russia, were helpless to stop them, and TB2s inflicted similarly heavy losses on Russian hardware in Syria and Libya.
So, with Ukraine fielding newly-acquired TB2s from Turkey — and using them in action against militants — we see comments like Francis Fukuyama’s recent tweet that “Ukraine’s use of Turkish drones could be a complete game-changer.”
TB2 Bayraktar drones supplied by Turkey have been game-changers in the Caucasus, Libya and Syria. … [+]
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Ukraine also fields an array of small tactical drones, some with lethal payloads. The local drone industry was kickstarted by the 2014 conflict, when universities, hobbyists and small businesses provided drones direct to front-line units.
The standout product was Althon Avia’s A1 Fury, a tactical reconnaissance drone which remains in service in upgraded form. But diversity is still the word. The latest catalog from Ukraine’s UKRINMASH arms company lists 23 different types of drone, plus 13 more in development, and it claims its drone industry is world-class.
On top if this there are loitering munitions or kamikaze drones. These range from the seemingly sophisticated ST-55 Silent Thunder and KB Robotics’ planned LUACC Swarm Launcher, which can put 36 lethal drones into the air in quick succession, to a number of home-brew efforts and grenade-dropping multicopters.
Russia, however, may be ready for them.
Samuel Bendett, an expert on the Russian defense scene, and adviser to both the CNA and CNAS told me that the Russians appear bullish about their ability tackle the drone threat from Ukraine.
“Russian military recognizes the Turkish TB2 drone as a force multiplier for the Ukrainian forces, but at the same time the MoD contends that its more advanced EW [electronic warfare], radar detection and air defense systems can spot and neutralize this drone without it posing a threat to the forces on the ground,” says Bendett.
Nor is it a coincidence that the makes of the Pantsir mobile air defense vehicle just announced that it has been upgraded, in particular to deal with attack drones. The Pantsir is a tracked vehicle which combines eight missile launchers with a pair of 30mm rapid-fire cannon. They suffered badly in Syria, but lessons were apparently learned.
The Pantsir S-1 mobile anti-aircraft system has performed poorly against drones in the past — but … [+]
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Observers have also recently noticed Russian tanks near the border with ‘field expedient’ armor add-ons, welded metal cages over the turrets to deflect or prematurely detonate missiles from above.
Bendett notes that the Russians now have some years’ experience against the smaller drones that have been deployed in and around Donbas.
“The Russian military intends to use a combination of EW [electronic warfare] and air defense systems to neutralize them,” says Bendett. “The Russian MOD is …….