(Photo by Muhammed Enes Yildirim/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images.)
In the early hours of July 11, 2014, Ukrainian ground troops camped out near the border town of Zelenopillya began to hear the familiar hum of Russian drones surveilling their position overhead. Shortly thereafter, a barrage of Russian short-range rocket fire hit the brigades, which had in recent weeks gained significant ground against Moscow-backed separatist forces. The sophisticated attacks destroyed several heavy artillery units and killed at least 30 Ukrainian soldiers. Hundreds more were injured.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine began with a slow trickle of unmarked fighters masquerading as separatists and swelled into an onslaught of tanks, howitzers, and reconnaissance and military aircrafts. The 2014 offensives pitted Moscow’s technological might against Kyiv’s reserves of ground forces in what, for Ukraine, was a war of attrition. The massacre at Zelenopillya confirmed the Kremlin’s strategic edge, establishing for good the efficacy of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVS) on the frontline.
As American intelligence warns of another push by Moscow across Ukraine’s border early next year, the Russians appear poised to combine air support and surveillance missions with brute force. A new report leaked to Bloomberg lays out a scenario in which Putin mobilizes up to 100 tactical battalions—around 100,000 soldiers—and tens of thousands of reservists in their wake to occupy any new territory. The incursion would be accompanied by the same integrated drone and artillery operations which proved so painful to Kyiv in 2014.
The influx of Russian troops near Ukraine’s border could be another false alarm to keep Ukraine on its toes and/or force concessions from the West. We saw that dynamic at play when Putin mobilized forces and armaments in the spring, landing a summit with Secretary of State Anthony Blinken two months later. But this time around, the movement of troops has been quieter and larger, prompting warnings from experts that it could be the real deal.
Secretary of State Anthony Blinken noted his concern earlier this month, pointing to Putin’s pattern of establishing a false rationale before launching unlawful offensives. “We don’t know what President Putin’s intentions are, but we do know what’s happened in the past,” Blinken told reporters. “We do know the playbook of trying to cite some illusory provocation from Ukraine or any other country and then using that as an excuse to do what Russia is planning to do all along.”
One difference this time around, if Russia is on the hunt for a pretext to re-invade Ukraine, is that the Ukrainians may well be better prepared. In the ongoing war between Russian-backed separatists and Ukrainian soldiers in the country’s east, Kyiv recently responded to deadly howitzer fire with a Turkish-produced Bayraktar TB2 drone. Ukraine’s access to armed, unmanned aircrafts startled Moscow, which has long enjoyed technological superiority over its former satellite state.
“We really have special and good relations with Turkey but this case, unfortunately, confirms our concerns that the deliveries of such armaments to the Ukrainian military may potentially destabilize the situation at the engagement line,” said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov last month. Spokespeople for France and Germany—NATO allies, like Turkey—also condemned the strike after apparent pressure from Russia.
Whether Moscow’s outward rage is genuine or sensationalized to justify an eventual offensive, it’s clear that Kyiv’s deepening defensive ties with Ankara could pose a strategic threat to Putin’s preferred regional balance. Earlier this month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Turkish …….
Source: https://thedispatch.com/p/why-is-turkey-selling-drones-to-ukraine